Your questions, answered "What is the likelihood that the virus is circulating the U.S. just as much as it ever was but that case numbers continue to drop drastically just because more and more people are [asymptomatic] due to vaccination and so are not getting tested?" — Nicole in Maryland Although it's true fewer Americans are getting tested now than they were six months ago, the chance the coronavirus continues to circulate at peak levels is minuscule. There are a few reasons for this. It's looking more and more likely vaccines prevent most asymptomatic infections. Evidence has accumulated that vaccines protect against catching the coronavirus, whether or not a person shows symptoms. In March, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study of health-care workers provided compelling results, as Health reporter Lena H. Sun wrote: "Among 2,479 fully vaccinated people, just three had confirmed infections. Among 477 people who received one dose, eight infections were reported." Those vaccinated workers were tested regularly, whether or not they felt sick — suggesting the vaccines were preventing infections in the first place. Likewise, in studies of monkeys who were vaccinated but then exposed to the virus, those animals were protected from infection. That's held true for all three FDA-authorized vaccines. The coronavirus needs a fresh host to reproduce. That's why cases spiked in patchwork patterns across the globe throughout the pandemic. First a region flares up as the virus spreads through the community. Once there are no more vulnerable people — either because they have been already exposed or adequately protected — the pathogen fizzles out. Evidence suggests that in areas with high immunization rates, the coronavirus is fizzling. For more, check out this Post analysis on where case rates remain highest in the U.S.: As a rule, it's where people aren't vaccinated. Hospitalizations and deaths remain low, too. Fewer infections means less disease and less transmission, as the CDC notes. A drop in testing wouldn't keep people with severe covid-19 out of hospitals. If vaccinated people were still spreading the virus at peak levels, even if that spread was not reflected in test positivity counts, hospitalizations would be high. Consider the hospitalization trend in New York City, an early U.S. hotspot: Hospitalizations were highest in March and April 2020, before vaccines but also before widely available tests. Now, deaths, cases and hospitalizations are all so low New York's 15-month statewide state of emergency came to an end Thursday. That doesn't mean the coronavirus has stopped spreading completely. It's too early to be complacent, especially as the delta variant emerges in U.S. communities. Please go get vaccinated if you are able. |