| In less than two weeks, the federal government could default on its loans and plunge the country into a recession. Unless Congress figures out a way around its standoff. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says the United States has until about Oct. 18 to avoid default. Here are five scenarios for how it ends, ranked least to most likely: 5. Least likely: The U.S. defaults on its loans The United States has never defaulted on its loans. A default would almost immediately cause a recession, a crash in the financial markets and millions of jobs lost. All sides in this debate say they don't want that to happen. 4. Washington just gets rid of the debt ceiling The debt ceiling is a problem Congress created for itself about a century ago, when lawmakers put themselves in charge of when the Treasury Department can borrow more money to pay its bills. Which means Congress could just change the law and get rid of it entirely. But Republicans aren't open to eliminating the debt ceiling, and the White House has said it isn't considering any unilateral action to wave it away.  President Biden on Tuesday. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post) | 3. Democrats fold — but there's not enough time to avoid a partial default Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has been saying for months that if Democrats want to raise the debt ceiling, they'll have to do it without any help from Republicans. McConnell's position ignores the many times he's been in charge and needed Democratic votes to raise the debt ceiling. But it's the political reality of the moment. To end this whole thing, Democrats could acquiesce to Republican demands and raise the debt ceiling with only Democratic votes through a budgetary process known as reconciliation. But it's risky, in part, because they have waited so long to start it. What happens if they get right up to the deadline, and something or someone gums up the process? We could see at least a partial default, where the United States has to prioritize which loans it pays. 2. Republicans fold and vote for a debt ceiling suspension Using the debt ceiling to politically damage Democrats is an extraordinarily hardball tactic. But it's one McConnell feels comfortable using. Until, that is, we get close to a default, and the only option may be for Republicans to step aside. If Democrats don't make moves to do it the way Republicans want them to soon, the United States could be just days from the potential default date, and the only way to raise the debt ceiling would be with a bipartisan vote. In that case, at least 10 Republicans would probably provide votes to help Democrats overcome a Republican filibuster and suspend it. A default would hurt their constituents as much as those of Democrats. "In a game of chicken," Georgetown Law professor David Super wrote in an email, "when both drivers know that one is no longer able to swerve, it pretty much assumes the other will do so." 1. Most likely: Democrats raise the debt ceiling on their own, with enough time to spare This is the most likely option because Democrats have a few ways to do it — even if the options are time-consuming. They could raise the debt ceiling on their own through a budget bill that is attached to either their big social-policy bill, or a stand-alone bill. They could try to convince Republicans to back down off a filibuster, and then only raise the debt limit with Democratic votes. They could get rid of the filibuster for just the debt ceiling, which at least one prominent Democratic senator is talking about. The White House said Monday they're not closing the door on anything. What Mike Pence said about Jan. 6 that everyone's talking about  A protester unleashes a smoke grenade in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington on Jan. 6. (Eric Lee/Bloomberg) | The violent mob of Trump supporters that attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 had one person in particular on their minds: Vice President Mike Pence. President Donald Trump had spent days blasting Pence for not helping him overturn the presidential election. "Hang Mike Pence," some chanted, as Pence hid in the Capitol from them. Nine months after the invasion, Pence went on Fox News's "The Sean Hannity Show" last night, Trump's favorite home, and used language designed to give the rioters the benefit of the doubt and downplay what actually happened. "January 6 was a tragic day in the history of our Capitol building," he said. Notice Pence used the word "building" rather than talking about the people who stormed it. "The media wants to distract from this failed administration by focusing on one day in January," he went on. "What's Pence going to do?" asked The Washington Post's Philip Bump. "He's obviously still thinking about running for president in 2024 and needs to figure out how to navigate the turbulent waters of the Republican base." | 
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