| President Biden said today that this moment with his social spending bill could define his presidency. My colleagues report he privately told Democratic lawmakers: "I don't think it's hyperbole to say that the House and Senate majorities — and my presidency — will be determined by what happens in the next week." Translation: He needs a win. And it's possible he'll get one soon, as Democrats start to coalesce around a major economic/climate change package that will dramatically expand the social safety net.  President Biden and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Capitol Hill on Wednesday. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post) | More on that in a minute. First, let's review why Biden — and by extension, his party — so badly needs this deal to come to fruition right now. He's going abroad soon: This week and next week, he will be attending major global summits especially focused on climate change. Biden campaigned on America stepping back into a global leadership role. To that end, he'd love to attend the summits with these bills done or close to done, since they contain some of the U.S.'s first major investments in combating climate change, ever. His popularity continues to slip: A majority of the country — 51 percent — disapprove of the job he's doing, according to a Washington Post analysis of October polls. By contrast, 43 percent approve. The parties of presidents with job approval ratings below 50 percent have traditionally lost dozens of House seats in midterms, according to Gallup. The Democratic Party would really like to flip Biden's approval ratings before it goes before voters in next year's elections, which will decide whether Democrats lose their governing majorities in Congress. Afghanistan: Republican operatives I talk to feel that the bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan this summer still resonates with voters — specifically the narrative it fueled that Biden isn't a capable leader. The White House has said it thinks memories of this will fade in a year. But that's not a guarantee. Right around the time of the Afghanistan withdrawal is when his approval ratings started to noticeably slip. The economy: In polls, voters often say the economy is their top concern. And we just learned today that growth was sluggish this summer, at an annual rate of 2 percent, in no small part because of the Delta variant (which is fading in strength) and supply chain problems (which could take well into next year to untangle). Biden doesn't have much control over either. Tuesday could be a rough day for Democrats: The Virginia governor's race is Tuesday, and Democrats are at risk of losing control of the governor's mansion there for the first time in nearly a decade. Democratic voters just may not be that motivated to turn out. Any win in Congress probably comes too late to change that narrative in Virginia. But it could help Democrats blunt talk of doom and gloom if they do lose this race.  Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe campaigns with former president Barack Obama recently. (Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post) | Democrats could be at a turning point Something Biden does have a lot of control over is getting Democrats to pass legislation that could define his presidency. He's really close on that front. The latest: There's still not a deal in place on Democrats' social spending bill. But today, he rolled out compromise legislation, went to Capitol Hill and urged lawmakers to vote for it. It's almost half what liberal Democrats wanted to spend, and it leaves big priorities for the Democratic Party, like paid family leave, on the cutting room floor. But the legislation would still make big changes to American life. Here's a comprehensive look of what's in it, at least as Biden proposed it. The highlights: - Investment in combating climate change. A climate activist I talked to said this legislation is really the first legislation ever to deal with climate change in a meaningful way. But it's also probably not enough to reach Biden's goal of halving greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, my colleagues report.
- It establishes universal prekindergarten.
- There are expansions of tax credits, like the child tax credit, an earned income tax credit, and tax credits to buy health insurance.
If Democrats can get the votes for this and pass a $1 trillion infrastructure investment, it is a big deal for the party. They'll feel much, much better about their chances to keep control of Congress next year. "This will be the first year of a presidency that rivals any presidency of the past 100 years," Democratic operative Jim Kessler told me. He said the climate spending and universal prekindergarten in the social spending bill and universal broadband in the infrastructure package would be legacy-setting for Biden. "If that's all that is passed, that would be more than most presidents get, period," Kessler said. "And there is so much more in this." What could go wrong for Democrats now Well, they still need to pass not one but two major bills: A bipartisan infrastructure bill and that social spending/climate package. The former is being held up by House liberals — a remarkable fact that underscores how divided the Democratic Party is — and the latter has to pass the House and the Senate with only Democratic votes, where there is hardly any room for error. If those get passed, Democrats would need to figure out how to sell this. Kessler feels pretty confident that the past few months of headlines about Democratic infighting will go away. But how do Democrats take the next step and convince Americans that their lives are noticeably better because of them? So far, polls show Americans feel pretty meh when asked if their lives have improved now that Democrats are in charge. Could the economy continue to struggle? Republicans' big knock on Biden's agenda is that it's too big and too expensive and will contribute to rising prices at the gas pump and grocery store. They can credibly keep making that argument as long as inflation is around, which economists predict could be the case well into next year. | 
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