| Welcome to The Daily 202! Tell your friends to sign up here. Via the Associated Press: On this day in 1986, the pro-Syrian Lebanese magazine Ash-Shiraa breaks the story of U.S. arms sales to Iran, revealing what came to be known as the Iran-contra affair. | | |  | The big idea | | Biden's Thanksgiving test |  (Washington Post illustration; iStock) | | | Twenty one years and a few days ago, Ronald Reagan invited voters to judge President Jimmy Carter according to a simple standard once they got into the voting booth: "Ask yourself: Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" On Tuesday, wrapping up a trip to Europe not even a year since taking office, President Biden suggested an updated version of that famous question, encouraging Americans judging him to compare Thanksgiving 2021 to Thanksgiving 2020. "This Thanksgiving we're all in a very different circumstance, things are a hell of a lot better," he told reporters at a news conference in Glasgow, Scotland. Would anyone "as bad as things are, in terms of prices hurting families now, trade this Thanksgiving for last Thanksgiving" he mused. Yet the results of Tuesday's elections suggest voters don't think they are actually better off some nine months into the Biden presidency. In Virginia, which Biden carried by 10 points last year, voters made Glenn Youngkin governor, the first Republican to win statewide since 2009. But the real shocker is in supposedly safe New Jersey, where incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is barely leading Republican Jack Ciattarelli in a squeaker. Before the results were in, Biden on Tuesday rejected the idea that his standing in public opinion polls and the state of play of his domestic agenda in Congress had "any real impact" on Virginia. The bad night for Democrats is only going to increase pressure on them to pass the president's agenda before the 2022 midterms — delivering something, anything, to voters skeptical of their ability to fulfill their promises. | | My colleague Cleve R. Wootson, Jr. reported Monday that Virginia voters felt "a profound sense of frustration that people haven't seen benefits of Democratic control trickle into their lives or their wallets." Voter disappointment is a powerful political force. | | Which gets us back to Biden's test: Would Americans trade Thanksgiving 2021 for Thanksgiving 2020 when it comes to the pandemic? Arguably the biggest factor in a "no" answer here is that in November 2020 the country faced rising cases and deaths without the benefit of a cheap, widely available and effective vaccine against the coronavirus. In 2021, Americans who have not had their shot(s) accounted for an overwhelming proportion of people who got seriously ill from the disease, were hospitalized and died. Perhaps the year's biggest covid cliche is that the country is going through a "pandemic of the unvaccinated." Biden's job approval ratings started to slip this summer as the Delta variant surged, and his numbers haven't recovered. The virus, which had claimed 403,000 U.S. lives when Biden took office, has claimed another 345,000 since — in large part in states where people tend to reject the vaccine and other mitigation measures like mask-wearing. Still, with plentiful vaccines, promising treatments and kids (finally) going to school in person, it's hard to imagine large numbers of Americans waxing nostalgic for November 2020 when it comes to the pandemic. Imagine facing the Delta variant without a vaccine. At the same time, Youngkin seemed to draw fuel from a reservoir of parental frustrations about last year's school closures, which generated anger and mistrust toward education and health officials. Would you trade Thanksgiving 2021 for Thanksgiving 2020 when it comes to the economy? This requires a lot of unpacking. Does it mean jobs? Inflation? Supply chain disruptions? Wages? If we're talking about job growth, the answer would most likely be "no," even after a couple of deeply disappointing months, coinciding with the Delta variant. From February through September, the U.S. economy created about 4.7 million jobs. It's still short 5 million jobs from before the pandemic. In November 2020, the unemployment rate slid from 6.9 percent to 6.7 percent. In September 2021, it slipped from 5.2 percent to 4.8 percent. | | It's a complicated picture, though. Record numbers of Americans are quitting their jobs and unions in various economic sectors across the country are striking, while millions of workers sit on the sidelines angling for higher pay and better benefits — all symptoms of increased labor leverage. Which gets us to wages and inflation, both of which are up. Prices of new cars, used cars and Thanksgiving dinner with all of the trimmings are all up. Consumer spending has been climbing. AAA puts the average price of a gallon of gas at $3.401. One year ago, it was $2.122. As for disruptions to American supply chains, which are the purview of the private sector not the president, Winter 2021 may feel a lot like Winter 2020, with packages not reaching their Christmas destinations. Would you trade Thanksgiving 2021 for Thanksgiving 2020 when it comes to the direction of the country? The numbers remain bleak. When Gallup asked in September whether Americans were satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States, a whopping 75 percent said they were dissatisfied. (In November 2020, it was 76 percent.) A new NBC News poll found seven in 10 adults — and nearly half of Democrats — say the country is going in the wrong direction. Biden hopes to give them something to be thankful for soon. | | |  | What's happening now | |  The U.S. Supreme Court is seen on Capitol Hill in Washington on Wednesday as television cameras are set up. (Jose Luis Magana/AP) | | Supreme Court hears challenge to N.Y. gun law | | "The Supreme Court on Wednesday hears a challenge to New York State's gun restrictions, a case with broad implications for other states that restrict the ability to carry loaded, concealed firearms in public places. It is the first major Second Amendment case before the court in more than a decade," Ann E. Marimow, Tom Jackman and Mariana Alfaro report. | | Follow along with The Post's live updates on the challenge here. | Senate panel approves Rahm Emanuel's nomination as ambassador to Japan | | "The nomination now advances to the full Senate. Emanuel has faced sharp criticism for his handling of police misconduct, including the 2014 police shooting of Laquan McDonald, a Black Chicago teenager," Felicia Sonmez and John Hudson report. Two Democrats opposed him: Sens. Ed Markey (Mass.) and Jeff Merkley (Ore.), with Merkley saying: "Black Lives Matte. Here in the halls of Congress, it is important that we not just speak and believe these words, but put them into action in the decisions we make." | $2.5 million settlement approved for families over Kobe Bryant helicopter crash leaked photographs | | "Members of the victims' families alleged that first responders from the L.A. County Sheriff's Department and Fire Department took 'unauthorized photographs of human remains' at the site of the crash and shared them with others for reasons that had nothing to do with the case," Annabelle Timsit reports. | And Pelosi says paid family and medical leave is back is Biden's social spending bill in what looks like a reaction to last night's electoral shellacking: | | Not so fast, says Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WestVa.), of course: |  | | | | | |  | The morning after | | Democrats reassess as Murphy takes slight lead in New Jersey |  Jack Ciattarelli, Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey, greets attendees after speaking during an election night event in Bridgewater Township. (Mark Kauzlarich/Bloomberg News) | | | ""Congratulations to Governor-elect Glenn Youngkin on his victory," McAuliffe said in a statement. "I hope Virginians will join me in wishing the best to him and his family," John Wagner reports. | Murphy takes (small lead) in New Jersey | | The Democrat led by 7,195 votes with 87 of precincts reporting in a shocker. Follow the results here. | - Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) told CNN he thought Murphy would pull it out, but that the results were a "wake up call" for Democrats. "People want action," he said.
- What does it mean? " … the unexpected closeness of the race underscored the overall vulnerability of the Democratic Party. Much like Mr. Youngkin in Virginia, Mr. Ciattarelli appeared to benefit from robust turnout in rural and conservative-leaning areas of the state while making inroads in denser areas such as Bergen County, the populous suburb of New York City," the New York Times's Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns report.
| | Democrats are already pointing fingers after the bad night, and pushing for passage of Biden's domestic agenda, which has been stalled for weeks because of intraparty squabbling. The upshot may be more pressure to approve the bipartisan infrastructure package and the party's mammoth social spending measure, though possibly in expanded form (see above for Pelosi's desire to include four weeks of paid family leave in the latter). | - "I think it's going to send a signal that we've got to produce. You know, the American public gave us a majority of both houses for a reason," Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) told our colleagues Tony Romm and Mike DeBonis. "We've got to get results for people, and if we do, we've got a good chance to get a whole lot of votes. But if we, you know, argue amongst ourselves, and we don't produce, that puts us at risk."
- "The circumstances in the two governor's races all but confirmed the collapse of the coalition that propelled Democrats to power during the Donald Trump administration and [Biden] to the presidency in 2020," writes Sean Sullivan. "In the election's wake, there were fresh doubts in the party about Biden's ability to push his domestic agenda across the finish line, and to repel the new attacks Republicans have opened on culture fronts, especially over schools. A new round of upheaval over the party's priorities and strategies appeared imminent."
- "How quickly Democrats absorb Tuesday's results and begin to respond will determine how well they can hold down expected losses in the coming midterms," writes Dan Balz.
| Virginia goes purple (again) | - "Virginia was a purple state for quite some time and was always a purple state underneath," Ben Tribbett, a Democratic consultant, told our Paul Schwartzman. "But in the Trump era, we became a blue state in reaction to his policies. We will go back to being a swing state going forward."
- A GOP sweep: "Republicans appeared to sweep the other statewide races, with Winsome Sears capturing lieutenant governor and Del. Jason Miyares (Virginia Beach) leading for attorney general. Sears becomes the first Black woman elected statewide in Virginia and Miyares would be the first Latino. A red wave also washed through the House of Delegates, turning a 55-45 Democratic majority into what appears likely to be a Republican majority."
| | More reaction, including about Youngkin personally: |  | | | | | New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy in a speech after midnight | "We're leading with compassion and empathy, not anger and despair. We're following science and facts, not the political winds." | | | | | | | | |  | Lunchtime reads from The Post | |  Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and former New York City police Commissioner Bernard Kerik during the Tunnel to Towers ceremony in New York. (Mark Lennihan/AP) | | Trump campaign payments for 'command centers' at D.C. hotels could undermine executive privilege claim | | Former New York City Police Chief Bernard Kerik and his friend Rudolph W. Giuliani were "shelling out thousands of dollars for hotel rooms and travel in their effort to find evidence of voting fraud and persuade state legislators to overturn Joe Biden's victory," Jacqueline Alemany, Josh Dawsey, Emma Brown and Tom Hamburger report. "Yet President Donald Trump's campaign turned down Kerik's request for a campaign credit card." "The bills went unpaid until after Fox News personality Jeanine Pirro went to bat on their behalf, according to a Republican official, who like some others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. Soon after, the campaign cut Kerik a check — with Trump's approval, according to a former senior campaign official.
That move, in mid-December, smoothed the way for what would eventually be more than $225,000 in campaign payments to firms owned by Kerik and Giuliani — including more than $50,000 for rooms and suites at the posh Willard hotel in Washington that served as a 'command center' for efforts to deny Biden the presidency in the days leading up to the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6." | Stephanie Murphy's defiant long game | | "The voice of House battleground Democrats isn't afraid to openly criticize her party leaders if she thinks it will help them keep the House in 2022," Politico's Sarah Ferris reports. "The Florida Democrat is now among a small band of moderates threatening to delay a vote on the sprawling $1.75 trillion bill until lawmakers can know the full price tag — a process that can take weeks — even if it infuriates fellow Democrats who are eager to vote." | | |  | The Biden agenda | | | "Democrats in high-tax states such as New Jersey, California and New York have demanded the repeal of a $10,000 cap on what state and local taxpayers can deduct off their federal taxes, a provision enacted by the GOP in their tax law to offset the cost of its large corporate tax cut. Lawmakers such as Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) have gone as far as saying they will vote against President Biden's Build Back Better economic package if repeal of the "SALT cap" is not included (SALT is an acronym for the state and local tax deduction)," Jeff Stein and Tony Romm report. | Negotiators turn to focus on money as leaders depart COP26 | | "On a day devoted to financing the high price of fighting emissions, leaders on Wednesday touted a pledge of up to $130 trillion by an organization representing many of the globe's biggest financial firms to help fund the transition to clean energy," Michael Birnbaum, William Booth and Jeff Stein report. "Many environmental groups have panned the initiative as insufficient, in part because it does not include a commitment from the banks and financial firms to stop financing production of coal plants and other intensive producers of carbon. | | |  | Virginia's balance of power, visualized | | | All 100 seats in the House of Delegates were on the ballot, as Democrats hoped to protect the 55-45 majority they won in the 2019 elections. That broke a 20-year run of Republican control in the House. Follow our elections page to see final results. | | |  | Hot on the left | |  McAuliffe speaks to a crowd of supporters on November 2, 2021 in McLean, Virginia. (Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post) | | Opinion: Democrats are slipping with the voters who gave them victory in 2020 | | Virginia proves it, Deputy Editorial Page Editor and Columnist Karen Tumulty writes. "Key to Biden's 2020 win in Virginia and elsewhere were 'surge' voters — among them, younger people and people of color — whose revulsion toward then-President Donald Trump brought them to the polls, many for the first time, in 2018 and 2020." "But without Trump on the ballot, Democrats are struggling to achieve that kind of motivation with their own supporters, many of whom say they are feeling burned out by politics. Some are disillusioned with the party that controls Washington but is unable to deliver results. Others are more preoccupied with concerns such as the coronavirus and inflation." | | |  | Hot on the right | |  Youngkin after speaking to supporters on November 2, 2021 in Chantilly, Virginia. (Salwan Georges/The Washington Post) | | Opinion: Youngkin's winning formula for Virginia Republicans | | The Post's Editoral Board reflects on the adroit campaign that propelled Youngkin to victory — and looks forward to what his governorship could and should focus on. "Mr. Youngkin's victory will be read as evidence that with a nimble enough candidate, at least in an off-year election, the GOP can overcome the burden that former president Donald Trump's considerable shadow might otherwise represent in a moderate state." "Having focused for the campaign's early months on the canard of election integrity, Mr. Youngkin pivoted this fall by laying out an ambitious economic program. The cacophony of negative campaigning and culture war wailing tended to drown out his ambitious economic agenda, yet the success of his governorship will be judged more on the latter than the former." | | |  | Today in Washington | | | The White House COVID-19 Response Team and public health officials will brief at 1:45 p.m. | | |  | In closing | |  In this May 20, 1994 photo, John F. Kennedy Jr. answers journalists' questions soon after his mother Jackie Kennedy's death in New York. (Timothy A. Clary/AFP file) | | Why did hundreds of QAnon supporters showed up in Dallas Tuesday? Great question. | | They were expecting JFK Jr.'s return. "At the site overlooking where President John F. Kennedy was assassinated nearly six decades ago, scores of QAnon believers outfitted with "Trump-Kennedy 2024" shirts, flags and other merchandise gathered. They forecast the president's son John F. Kennedy Jr., who has been dead for over 20 years, would appear at that spot, emerging from anonymity to become Donald Trump's vice president when the former president is reinstated. The prophecy foretold online, of course, did not come true," Meryl Kornfield reports. | | Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow. | | |
