Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi

The geopolitical temperature in East Asia is rising sharply. As former President Donald Trump prepares for a potentially momentous meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, a palpable sense of anxiety grips Taipei. Specifically, the core issue is that Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi, fearing that long-standing security guarantees might be traded away for economic concessions or a quick foreign policy win.

You need to understand the gravity of this situation. Taiwan views American backing as the ultimate deterrent against a forceful takeover by Beijing. However, the unpredictability characterizing Trump's foreign policy approach, particularly his transactional view of alliances, has amplified these historical insecurities tenfold.

The Geopolitical Anxiety: Why Taipei Fears a Deal

For decades, the strategic ambiguity of the United States has served as a delicate balance in the Taiwan Strait. This policy assures military support without explicitly guaranteeing it, discouraging both a Chinese invasion and a premature declaration of independence by Taiwan. This balance, however, is exceptionally fragile under the current political climate in Washington.

When Trump was previously in office, his administration consistently prioritized a "America First" strategy. This approach often viewed traditional alliances as burdensome liabilities unless they offered direct, immediate financial or political benefit. Consequently, the possibility of Taiwan being used as a bargaining chip in high-stakes trade negotiations or discussions about global stability is a very real concern for Taiwanese policymakers.

Historical Context: The Taiwan Relations Act

The foundation of U.S.-Taiwan relations rests primarily on the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979. This domestic U.S. law dictates that the U.S. should make defense articles and services available to Taiwan to enable it to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability. It is a commitment that successive U.S. presidents have upheld, albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm.

This Act is crucial because it binds the U.S. to monitor any threats to Taiwan's security. It serves as a political and legal touchstone in Congress, guaranteeing that bipartisan support for Taiwan remains robust, even if the executive branch attempts to shift priorities.

Key components of the Taiwan Relations Act include:

• Providing Taiwan with the necessary defensive weapons and materials.
• Declaring any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area.
• Maintaining the capacity of the U.S. to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security of the people of Taiwan.

The fear now is that a deal-focused meeting between Trump and Xi could result in concessions that implicitly undermine the spirit, if not the letter, of the TRA, leaving Taipei exposed.

Analyzing Beijing's Leverage Ahead of the Summit

Beijing understands the domestic political motivations guiding former President Trump. Chinese strategists are acutely aware that the promise of lucrative trade deals, cooperation on global challenges like North Korea, or even favorable rhetoric regarding the U.S. economy, could be used as powerful levers.

President Xi Jinping's primary foreign policy goal remains the "reunification" of Taiwan, viewing it as an indispensable step toward national rejuvenation. Consequently, any summit with a U.S. leader is an opportunity for Xi to push for greater U.S. neutrality or, ideally for Beijing, a reduction in arms sales to Taipei.

The prospect of a "grand bargain" looms large in Taipei's concerns. Such a bargain might see the U.S. obtaining significant trade advantages in exchange for tacitly agreeing to curb interactions with Taiwan, thereby fulfilling a core demand of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Taiwan's Diplomatic Countermeasures and Defense Adjustments

Taiwan is not sitting idly by as these critical meetings approach. The government in Taipei has proactively intensified its diplomatic outreach efforts across Congress, think tanks, and former U.S. officials. The objective is to ensure that deep institutional support for Taiwan remains robust, insulating them from potentially unfavorable executive decisions.

On the defense front, Taiwan is rapidly shifting towards an "asymmetric warfare" strategy, focusing on highly mobile and difficult-to-target weapons that can withstand an initial Chinese assault. This is a clear signal that Taiwan is committed to defending itself, regardless of perceived wavering U.S. commitment.

Recent strategic defense priorities include:

1. Increased domestic production of missiles and naval vessels to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
2. Acquisition of advanced anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities.
3. Mandatory extension of compulsory military service to bolster reserve forces and readiness.
4. Deepening security ties with regional partners like Japan and Australia to build a broader coalition against aggression.

These actions reflect the profound reality that Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi, understanding that self-reliance is the best form of insurance.

The Role of Economic Interdependence

The high-tech economy plays a significant, though complicated, role in this equation. Taiwan is globally indispensable for its dominance in semiconductor manufacturing, particularly through TSMC. This economic leverage adds a protective layer, as disruption in the Taiwan Strait would devastate the global technology supply chain, an outcome neither the U.S. nor China truly desires.

However, this economic lifeline also presents a potential risk. If Trump seeks massive concessions from China to stabilize trade relations or address intellectual property issues, the political status of Taiwan might be viewed by the administration as a secondary, negotiable concern rather than an absolute security imperative. The focus could shift entirely to immediate economic wins, overshadowing long-term security commitments.

Moreover, the use of economic pressure by China—such as targeting specific sectors of the Taiwanese economy—serves as a constant reminder of Beijing's ability to destabilize the island without outright military conflict. This soft coercion further complicates Taipei's position as the summit approaches.

Conclusion: High Stakes and Unpredictability

The upcoming meeting between the former U.S. President and Xi Jinping is arguably one of the most stressful geopolitical moments for Taiwan in recent memory. The core fear remains the same: that Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi, potentially leading to a detrimental shift in the strategic balance of the Indo-Pacific.

While U.S. institutional support for Taiwan remains strong in Congress, the unpredictability of high-level diplomacy focused on transactional outcomes creates significant peril. For Taipei, the immediate task is maintaining proactive engagement with Washington while simultaneously reinforcing its military deterrence and diplomatic autonomy. The world watches closely to see if U.S. security guarantees hold firm against the pursuit of a major trade victory.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is the main reason Taiwan is worried about U.S. support wavering?

The primary concern stems from the transactional nature of the expected U.S. approach under the former president. Taipei fears that security commitments, specifically regarding defense and diplomatic recognition, could be traded away to secure significant economic or trade concessions from Beijing during the summit.

Does the U.S. legally guarantee to defend Taiwan?

The U.S. commitment is guided by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) of 1979, which mandates that the U.S. provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. However, the policy relies on "strategic ambiguity," meaning the U.S. does not explicitly promise intervention, which is precisely why Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi.

How might China use the summit as leverage against Taiwan?

China will likely push for agreements that limit U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, restrict high-level U.S.-Taiwan official visits, or encourage a renewed adherence to the "One China Policy" without the same level of U.S. commitment to Taiwan's defensive capabilities. Economic incentives for the U.S. are Beijing's main tool of coercion.

What is Taiwan doing to protect itself during this period?

Taiwan is focusing heavily on bolstering its self-defense capabilities through asymmetric warfare strategies, increasing defense spending, extending mandatory military service, and strengthening unofficial diplomatic ties with allies in the region, such as Japan and Australia, to build a resilient defense network.

Taiwan worries about US support wavering ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi

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