Liberals and Nationals to preference One Nation in blow to Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer byelection
Liberals and Nationals to preference One Nation in blow to Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer byelection
The Australian political landscape is witnessing a seismic shift as the Coalition parties, the Liberals and Nationals, have officially decided to preference Pauline Hanson’s One Nation ahead of independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe in the upcoming Farrer byelection. This strategic move, scheduled for the poll on May 9, 2026, has sent shockwaves through the electorate, particularly given the Coalition's recent history of aggressive attack ads against One Nation. By placing One Nation's David Farley higher on their how-to-vote cards than the prominent independent Milthorpe, the Coalition is signaling a high-stakes gamble to retain influence in a seat historically held by the center-right. This decision could prove decisive in a four-cornered contest where preferences are expected to determine the final victor in the southern New South Wales seat.
In the Farrer byelection, the Liberals and Nationals will preference One Nation’s David Farley ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe. This decision is viewed as a strategic attempt to block Milthorpe, who is often compared to "teal" independents, from winning the seat vacated by Sussan Ley. Despite running negative social media campaigns against One Nation, Coalition leaders like Matt Canavan have justified the preference deal by citing Milthorpe's support for policies like net zero and water buybacks, which they claim align her with the Greens and Climate 200 interests.
The Strategic Significance of the Farrer Byelection
The Farrer byelection is not just a local contest; it is a critical litmus test for the federal opposition. Triggered by the retirement of former deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley, the seat has been a conservative stronghold for decades. However, the emergence of a strong independent candidate in Michelle Milthorpe and the resurgence of One Nation in rural areas have created a volatile three-way race. For the new Liberal leader, Angus Taylor, losing Farrer would be a devastating blow to his early leadership, potentially reducing the opposition’s numbers and momentum. The decision to preference One Nation reveals the Coalition's desperation to ensure that if they cannot win the seat outright, it at least stays out of the hands of an independent who might vote with the government or the crossbench on key environmental and economic issues.
Michelle Milthorpe: The Independent Threat
Michelle Milthorpe has emerged as a formidable challenger, recontesting the seat after a strong showing in the 2025 general election where she significantly reduced Sussan Ley's margin. While she resists the "teal" label, her platform focuses on local representation, water rights, and sensible climate action—issues that resonate deeply with the Murray-Darling Basin electorate. The Coalition's attack ads have attempted to link her to Climate 200, the group that funded successful teal independents in urban seats, but Milthorpe maintains her campaign is locally driven. The decision by the major parties to preference One Nation over her highlights their perception of her as the primary threat to their long-term dominance in regional New South Wales.
One Nation’s Resurgence and David Farley
One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, is experiencing a polling surge in regional Australia. Their candidate for Farrer, David Farley, is a well-known figure with deep ties to the agricultural sector. Recent polling suggested that One Nation could command up to 29% of the primary vote, placing them ahead of both the Liberals and Milthorpe in some surveys. This popularity has forced the Coalition into a difficult position: while they criticize One Nation’s "chaos" and candidate selection processes in their advertising, they recognize that Farley's preferences are essential. By preferencing One Nation in return, they hope to secure a reciprocal arrangement that keeps the Liberal or National candidate in the race during the final counts.
The Paradox of Attack Ads and Preference Deals
The Farrer campaign is characterized by a striking paradox. On Facebook and Instagram, the Liberal party has funded a "One Nation: No Solutions" campaign, highlighting the controversial rehiring of staff and labeling the party as a "risk." Simultaneously, their how-to-vote cards will instruct their supporters to vote for One Nation before Michelle Milthorpe. This "dual-track" strategy—attacking a party’s character while courting its voters—has led to accusations of hypocrisy from political observers. The Nationals leader, Matt Canavan, defended the move by stating that a "teal-backed" candidate is fundamentally more dangerous to regional interests than One Nation, specifically regarding water buybacks and net-zero targets.
Polling Data and Voter Sentiment in Farrer
Current data indicates a highly fragmented electorate. A recent poll by the Australia Institute highlighted the following trends in voter intention:
| Candidate/Party | Estimated Primary Support |
|---|---|
| David Farley (One Nation) | 29% |
| Michelle Milthorpe (Independent) | 23% |
| Brad Robertson (Nationals) | 19% |
| Raissa Butkowski (Liberals) | 11.5% |
With these numbers, no single candidate is close to the 50% required to win on primary votes alone. This makes the flow of preferences the most critical factor in the election. The Coalition’s decision to put One Nation at 4th and Milthorpe at 9th on their ticket ensures that Liberal and National votes will almost certainly assist One Nation before they ever reach Milthorpe.
Water Rights and the Murray-Darling Basin Factor
Central to the Farrer contest is the management of the Murray-Darling Basin. Farmers in the region are acutely sensitive to any policies involving water buybacks, which they fear will destroy local economies. The Coalition has successfully used this issue to frame Michelle Milthorpe as a proxy for urban environmental interests. By contrast, David Farley and One Nation have adopted a hardline stance against buybacks, aligning them more closely with the National Party's traditional base. This policy alignment provides the ideological cover for the Coalition's preference decision, despite the personal and organizational attacks they have leveled at Pauline Hanson's party.
The Fallout for Michelle Milthorpe’s Campaign
Michelle Milthorpe has expressed disappointment but not surprise at the preference deal. She argued that the Liberal party’s choice to preference a "party of chaos" over a local independent shows how out of touch the major parties have become with the needs of Farrer. Her campaign strategy must now pivot to encouraging voters to "ignore the cards" and number their own preferences. The success of her campaign depends on whether she can convince enough Liberal and National voters that she is a safer, more stable choice than One Nation, regardless of what the official party instructions suggest.
Regional Implications for the 2026 Federal Election
The Farrer byelection serves as a prelude to the next full federal election. If One Nation wins the seat or comes close, it will embolden right-wing minor parties across regional Australia. If Milthorpe wins, it will prove that the "independent model" can work in safe National/Liberal heartlands, not just in wealthy urban seats. The Coalition’s preference deal is an attempt to prevent the latter at all costs. They are effectively choosing a "lesser of two evils" strategy, preferring a disruptive minor party over a stable independent who could fundamentally change the parliamentary arithmetic.
FAQ Section
Frequently Asked Questions about the Farrer Byelection
Q: Why are the Liberals and Nationals preferencing One Nation?
A: They view independent Michelle Milthorpe as a greater threat to their seat because of her perceived links to "teal" interests and environmental policies like water buybacks.
Q: When is the Farrer byelection?
A: The byelection is scheduled for May 9, 2026.
Q: Who are the main candidates in Farrer?
A: The key contenders are Raissa Butkowski (Liberals), Brad Robertson (Nationals), David Farley (One Nation), and independent Michelle Milthorpe.
Q: What are the main issues in this election?
A: Water rights in the Murray-Darling Basin, the cost of living, regional healthcare, and the transition to net-zero emissions.
Q: Is Michelle Milthorpe a "Teal" independent?
A: While the Coalition claims she is backed by Climate 200 and similar groups, Milthorpe denies the label, describing herself as a local representative focused on regional issues.
Conclusion
The Farrer byelection has become a fascinating study in political survival and tactical maneuvering. By preferencing One Nation, the Liberals and Nationals have prioritized blocking an independent victory over their own public criticisms of Pauline Hanson's party. For Michelle Milthorpe, the path to victory has become significantly narrower, requiring a massive primary vote or a high level of voter rebellion against party preferences. As May 9 approaches, all eyes will be on Farrer to see if this controversial preference deal succeeds in keeping the seat within the Coalition's orbit or if it backfires by alienating moderate voters who are weary of both the major parties and the far right. The outcome will undoubtedly set the tone for the upcoming federal election and the future of regional representation in Australia.
Liberals and Nationals to preference One Nation in blow to Michelle Milthorpe in Farrer byelection
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