Manila’s transport workers struggle to make ends meet as Philippines feels force of oil crisis
Manila’s transport workers struggle to make ends meet as Philippines feels force of oil crisis
The streets of Manila, once vibrant with the iconic hum of jeepneys and the bustling movement of millions, have become a theater of economic survival. As the global energy crisis intensifies following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, the Philippines—a nation heavily dependent on imported fuel—is facing one of its most severe financial tests in recent history. For the thousands of transport workers who form the backbone of the capital's mobility, the doubling of diesel prices in just a few weeks has transformed a difficult job into a desperate struggle for basic sustenance. From jeepney drivers to motorcycle taxi operators, the soaring cost at the pump is eroding daily earnings, forcing many to choose between refueling their vehicles and feeding their families.
Manila’s transport workers struggle to make ends meet as Philippines feels force of oil crisis due to a historic surge in fuel prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, which has seen diesel and gasoline costs double since late February 2026. This energy shock has decimated the daily take-home pay of jeepney drivers, often reducing earnings from 1,000 pesos to as little as 200 pesos, while the government’s declaration of a national energy emergency and provision of one-time 5,000-peso subsidies are criticized as inadequate to cover the long-term structural impact on the transport sector.
The Impact of the Middle East Conflict on Philippine Fuel Prices
The current crisis in the Philippines is a direct consequence of geopolitical instability thousands of miles away. Following the escalation of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and the subsequent partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil supply chains have been severely disrupted. For an archipelagic nation that imports nearly 98% of its petroleum, the impact was immediate and devastating. By late March 2026, fuel prices in Manila reached historic highs, with diesel—the lifeblood of the public transport system—surpassing 134 pesos per liter in some areas.
The speed of the price hikes has left little room for adjustment. Within three weeks of the conflict's start, fuel costs doubled, creating a "cascading effect" across the economy. Transport workers, who operate on razor-thin margins, were the first to feel the squeeze. Unlike corporate fleets, individual jeepney drivers and small-scale operators cannot easily absorb these costs. Every peso added to the price of fuel is a peso taken directly from their ability to pay for rent, utilities, and school fees for their children.
The Daily Struggle of the Manila Jeepney Driver
The jeepney, often referred to as the "King of the Road," is the most affordable and popular mode of transport in the Philippines. However, the kings are currently facing a revolution of rising costs. Drivers like 43-year-old Helera, who navigates the congested routes of Manila, report that they now work up to 18 hours a day just to break even. The traditional "boundary" system—where a driver pays a fixed fee to the vehicle owner before keeping any profit—has become almost impossible to maintain.
Many drivers have reported that their daily take-home pay has plummeted. Before the crisis, a typical shift might yield 1,000 pesos (approximately $18) in profit. Today, after paying for fuel that now costs twice as much, many return home with only 200 to 500 pesos. This amount is barely enough to buy a few kilograms of rice and basic canned goods for a family, leaving no room for emergencies or educational expenses. The psychological toll is equally heavy, as drivers face the exhaustion of longer hours coupled with the anxiety of diminishing returns.
National Energy Emergency: A Government in Crisis Mode
In response to the "imminent danger" of low energy supplies and skyrocketing costs, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency in late March 2026. This declaration, intended to last for one year, grants the government extraordinary powers to manage fuel stocks, prevent hoarding, and fast-track subsidies. The executive order also authorizes state energy firms to advance payments for fuel procurement and encourages energy conservation measures across all sectors.
However, the move has met with mixed reactions. While business tycoons and some economists support the emergency powers as a necessary tool to steer the economy, transport groups like Piston have criticized the declaration as a "superficial band-aid." They argue that the emergency does not address the structural roots of the crisis, such as the deregulation of the oil industry and the heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels. For the workers on the ground, the emergency declaration feels distant compared to the immediate reality of the price boards at the gas station.
Economic Indicators and Regional Vulnerability
The Philippines is currently ranked as one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia regarding the oil shock. Analysts have noted that fuel prices are rising faster in the Philippines than in many of its regional peers. This is partly due to the country's limited domestic energy production and a weakening peso, which makes imports even more expensive. The following table illustrates the comparative economic strain and the components of the current energy landscape.
| Economic Factor | Current Status (March-April 2026) |
|---|---|
| Diesel Price Inflation | Over 100% increase since February 28 |
| GDP Growth Forecast | Revised down from 5.2% to 4.5% |
| National Oil Stockpile | Estimated 30-45 days of supply remaining |
| Unemployment Rate | Rose to 5.8% in early 2026 |
| Government Subsidy | 5,000 Pesos ($83) for qualified drivers |
The Failure of Subsidies and the Demand for Tax Suspension
To mitigate the impact on transport workers, the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) began distributing 5,000-peso ($83) fuel subsidies. While helpful, many drivers argue the amount is insufficient. For a jeepney driver spending an additional 1,000 pesos per day on fuel, the subsidy is exhausted in less than a week. Furthermore, the distribution process has been marred by bureaucratic hurdles, with many indigent drivers finding themselves excluded from the aid lists due to missing documents or technical errors.
The growing consensus among transport unions and even some lawmakers is the demand for a suspension of the excise tax and Value Added Tax (VAT) on petroleum products. Protesters argue that removing these taxes would provide immediate relief at the pump, lowering the cost of living for everyone. The government, however, has been hesitant to fully commit to this path, citing the potential loss of billions in revenue needed for infrastructure and social programs. This tension between fiscal stability and immediate relief remains a central point of conflict in Manila's political discourse.
Stagflation Fears and the Rising Cost of Basic Commodities
The oil crisis is not confined to the transport sector; it is bleeding into every aspect of Filipino life. As transportation and logistics costs soar, the price of food—particularly vegetables, meat, and rice—has begun to climb. In an archipelagic nation where goods must be moved by truck and ferry, a 40% increase in shipping fuel costs quickly translates to higher prices at the wet markets. This has raised the specter of "stagflation"—a period of stagnant economic growth coupled with high inflation.
Low-income households, which spend a disproportionate amount of their income on food and transport, are being hit the hardest. Street vendors, construction workers, and small-scale farmers are all reporting a significant decline in purchasing power. For many, "luxury" items like a full breakfast with rice are being replaced by smaller, less frequent meals. The erosion of the middle and lower class's ability to spend is expected to further dampen the country's overall economic recovery throughout 2026.
The Shift in Commuter Behavior and Urban Mobility
Interestingly, the high cost of fuel has led to a visible change in Manila's notorious traffic. The streets, once clogged with private cars and jeepneys, have become noticeably emptier as people avoid unnecessary travel or switch to more fuel-efficient options. Many commuters are flocking to the city's limited railway network, leading to massive bottlenecks and long queues at metro stations during rush hour. This shift has highlighted the "acute insufficiency" of Manila's mass transit infrastructure.
To cope with the crisis, some businesses and government offices have reverted to work-from-home arrangements, reminiscent of the COVID-19 lockdowns. Schools have also considered shortening the work week or returning to online classes to save on commuting costs. While these measures help conserve fuel, they also represent a contraction of economic and social activity, further contributing to the slowdown in national growth.
Future Outlook: Is there a Way Out?
The duration of the struggle for Manila's transport workers depends largely on international developments. As long as the Middle East conflict continues to choke the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices are likely to remain elevated. Domestically, the Philippines is exploring all options, including seeking waivers from the U.S. to purchase oil from sanctioned countries like Venezuela or Iran, and increasing the use of coal-fired power plants to keep electricity costs stable.
In the long term, this crisis may serve as a painful catalyst for the "modernization" of the transport sector. However, the transition to electric vehicles or more efficient fleet management requires capital that most drivers simply do not have. Without significant, sustained government intervention and a shift toward energy independence, the workers of Manila will continue to be at the mercy of global geopolitical tides.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why are fuel prices so high in the Philippines right now? - Fuel prices have surged primarily due to the Middle East conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which has led to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil supplies. The Philippines is highly vulnerable as it imports nearly all of its oil.
- How much have diesel prices increased in Manila? - Diesel prices have more than doubled since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, with prices reaching historic highs of over 134 pesos per liter in some parts of the capital.
- What is the Philippine government doing to help transport workers? - The government has declared a national energy emergency and started distributing a one-time 5,000-peso ($83) fuel subsidy to qualified public transport drivers. They are also considering suspending excise taxes on oil.
- What are transport groups like Piston demanding? - Transport groups are calling for the repeal of the Oil Deregulation Law, the suspension of fuel excise taxes and VAT, and more substantial, long-term financial support for drivers and operators.
- How is the oil crisis affecting the wider Philippine economy? - The crisis is driving up inflation, particularly for food and basic commodities, leading to fears of stagflation. It is also causing a slowdown in GDP growth and increasing the national current account deficit.
Conclusion
The plight of Manila’s transport workers is a sobering reminder of how global conflicts can dismantle the lives of the most vulnerable. As drivers struggle to make ends meet under the crushing weight of the oil crisis, the resilience of the Filipino people is once again being tested. While emergency declarations and small subsidies provide some relief, they are increasingly seen as insufficient for a crisis of this magnitude. The coming months will be critical for the Philippines as it navigates the thin line between economic stability and social unrest. For the jeepney drivers who continue to ply the streets of Manila, the hope is for a swift end to the conflict abroad and a more robust safety net at home.
Manila’s transport workers struggle to make ends meet as Philippines feels force of oil crisis
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