Everton 3-3 Man City: If Arsenal beat West Ham on Sunday, they win the Premier League title, says Jamie Carragher
Everton 3-3 Man City: If Arsenal beat West Ham on Sunday, they win the Premier League title, says Jamie Carragher
The 2025-26 Premier League title race took a seismic turn on Monday night as Manchester City played out a pulsating 3-3 draw against Everton at Hill Dickinson Stadium. In a match filled with defensive errors and late-game heroics, City surrendered a lead, fell two goals behind, and eventually clawed back a point through a 97th-minute Jeremy Doku strike. However, the dropped points mean Pep Guardiola’s side no longer controls its own destiny. With Arsenal currently sitting five points clear at the top of the table, the math has become remarkably simple for the Gunners, leading pundits like Jamie Carragher to declare that the race could effectively end this coming weekend.
According to Jamie Carragher, the Premier League title race will be over if Arsenal defeats West Ham on Sunday. Manchester City's 3-3 draw with Everton has left them trailing the Gunners by five points with only four games remaining. While City possesses a game in hand, an Arsenal victory at the London Stadium would mathematically put Mikel Arteta’s men in a position where they could clinch the trophy regardless of City's perfect finish, provided the goal differential remains in their favor or points are dropped elsewhere. The draw at Goodison Park shifts the momentum entirely to North London, leaving the reigning champions hoping for a major slip-up from the league leaders.
The Dramatic Collapse at Hill Dickinson Stadium
Manchester City arrived in Liverpool knowing that anything less than a victory would hand the initiative to Arsenal. For the first 45 minutes, it seemed business as usual for the champions. Jeremy Doku, who was the standout performer for City, broke the deadlock in the 43rd minute with a curling effort that beat Jordan Pickford. At halftime, City looked comfortable, dominating possession and restricting Everton to sporadic counter-attacks.
However, the second half witnessed an uncharacteristic implosion from Pep Guardiola's defense. Within 13 minutes, the game was turned on its head. Marc Guehi, usually a pillar of reliability, committed a catastrophic error by passing the ball directly to Everton's Thierno Barry, who calmly slotted home the equalizer. The momentum shifted instantly. Jake O’Brien rose highest from a corner just five minutes later to put Everton 2-1 up, and Barry added his second in the 81st minute to make it 3-1. The City faithful were stunned, and many began to leave the stadium, believing the title defense had ended then and there.
Doku and Haaland Lead the Late Fightback
Despite the dire situation, Manchester City refused to surrender. Erling Haaland, who had been quiet for much of the match, found a glimmer of hope in the 83rd minute. He powered through the Everton defense and clipped a finish over Pickford to make it 3-2. This goal sparked a relentless wave of City pressure as they camped in the Everton half for the remainder of the game and seven minutes of stoppage time.
The drama peaked in the 97th minute. Jeremy Doku, receiving the ball on the edge of the area, unleashed a thunderous strike into the top corner to salvage a 3-3 draw. While the point prevented a total disaster, the atmosphere in the City camp was one of frustration. Pep Guardiola admitted after the match that the title is no longer in their hands, a stark contrast to the confidence they displayed just weeks ago.
Jamie Carragher’s Bold Prediction for Sunday
Following the final whistle, Jamie Carragher was quick to assess the damage to City's title hopes. Speaking on Sky Sports, the former Liverpool defender noted that the psychological blow of drawing a game they dominated would be hard to overcome. He emphasized that Arsenal’s upcoming fixture against West Ham is now the most important match of the season.
Carragher argued that if Arsenal wins on Sunday, the gap would be too significant for City to bridge, even with their game in hand. He pointed out that Arsenal’s remaining fixtures—against West Ham, Burnley, and Crystal Palace—are all winnable games against teams with less to play for than an inspired Everton side. Carragher’s sentiment reflects a growing belief that the 22-year wait for a league title in North London is nearing its end.
The Statistical Landscape: Arsenal vs Manchester City
To understand the gravity of City's draw, one must look at the current Premier League standings. Arsenal leads with 76 points after 35 matches. Manchester City follows in second with 71 points after 34 matches. If Arsenal beats West Ham, they move to 79 points. Even if City wins their game in hand, they would only reach 74 points, leaving a five-point gap with only three games to play.
| Statistic | Arsenal (1st) |
|---|---|
| Current Points | 76 |
| Matches Played | 35 |
| Goal Difference | +45 |
| Remaining Games | West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Crystal Palace (A) |
The table above highlights that Arsenal's destiny is entirely within their grasp. They do not need City to drop more points; they simply need to maintain their winning streak. Manchester City, conversely, must win all four of their remaining games and hope for Arsenal to fail in at least two of their last three fixtures.
Everton’s Role as the Ultimate Spoiler
Everton’s performance cannot be overlooked. Under David Moyes, the Toffees have transformed into a resilient unit capable of upsetting the league's elite. While they will be disappointed to have conceded a 97th-minute equalizer, the point earned reinforces their mid-table stability. Thierno Barry’s brace and Jake O’Brien’s aerial threat exposed vulnerabilities in the City defense that other teams may look to exploit in the final weeks.
Moyes noted that his team was "hugely outplayed" in the first half but praised their spirit in the second. By forcing City into errors, Everton provided a blueprint for how to rattle a team under immense pressure. This "spoiler" role has inadvertently made Everton the most popular team in North London this week.
Arsenal’s Path to Glory: The West Ham Challenge
All eyes now turn to the London Stadium. West Ham United, currently fighting for their Premier League survival in 18th place, will be desperate for points. This creates a fascinating dynamic: a team playing for the title against a team playing for their life. However, statistical models heavily favor Arsenal. The Gunners have been dominant against bottom-half sides this season, maintaining a high expected goal (xG) differential.
Mikel Arteta has successfully instilled a level of defensive discipline that City lacked on Monday. Arsenal has shown they can win "ugly" when necessary, a trait that is essential in the final stretch of a title race. If they can silence the West Ham crowd early, the path to the title becomes a celebratory march.
Pep Guardiola’s Reaction: A Shift in Tone
Pep Guardiola’s post-match comments suggested a manager who knows the odds have shifted. "It's not in our hands," he repeated during his press conference. This is a rare admission from a man who has dominated English football for the better part of a decade. While he praised his team's aggression and refusal to lose, the uncharacteristic defensive errors from Marc Guehi and the rest of the backline clearly weighed on him.
City will face Brentford next, followed by Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa. While these are matches City would expect to win, the psychological pressure of knowing they must be perfect while relying on an Arsenal collapse is a heavy burden. Guardiola will need to find a way to restore defensive solidity quickly if they are to capitalize on any potential Arsenal slip-up.
Why This Title Race Feels Different
For several seasons, Manchester City has been the hunter that eventually catches its prey. Whether it was chasing down Liverpool or Arsenal in previous years, City’s late-season perfection was inevitable. However, this season feels different because of Arsenal's consistency. Unlike previous "bottling" narratives, this Arsenal side has looked composed under pressure.
The addition of players like Declan Rice and the emergence of youth talents have given Arsenal a depth and resilience they lacked in previous campaigns. Jamie Carragher pointed out that Arsenal’s "boring" but effective approach to some matches is exactly what wins titles. They don't play many 3-3 draws; they secure 1-0 or 2-0 wins that keep the points tally moving without the drama that City experienced at Everton.
FAQ Section
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What was the final score of the Everton vs Manchester City match?
A: The match ended in a 3-3 draw on May 5, 2026.
Q: How many points lead does Arsenal have over Manchester City?
A: Arsenal is currently 5 points ahead of Manchester City, though City has one game in hand.
Q: What happens if Arsenal beats West Ham on Sunday?
A: An Arsenal win would move them 8 points ahead of City (before City's next game). Jamie Carragher believes this would effectively seal the Premier League title for Arsenal.
Q: Who scored the goals in the Everton vs City match?
A: For Manchester City, Jeremy Doku scored twice and Erling Haaland scored once. For Everton, Thierno Barry scored twice and Jake O'Brien scored once.
Q: What are Manchester City's remaining fixtures?
A: City will play Brentford, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa in their final four matches.
Conclusion
The 3-3 draw between Everton and Manchester City will likely be remembered as the defining moment of the 2025-26 Premier League season. While Jeremy Doku’s late equalizer showed the heart of a champion, the defensive errors that preceded it have handed Arsenal a golden opportunity. Jamie Carragher’s assessment rings true for many: the title is now Arsenal’s to lose. If Mikel Arteta’s side can maintain their composure and secure three points against West Ham this Sunday, the 22-year wait for league glory will be all but over. For Manchester City, the era of controlling their own destiny has paused, leaving them in the unfamiliar position of hoping for a miracle elsewhere.
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